The recent earthquakes in Indonesia, Venezuela, and Colombia have sparked concerns about a global increase in big earthquakes. However, experts, including John Cassidy from Natural Resources Canada and Robert Shcherbakov from Western University, offer a different perspective. Despite the attention-grabbing headlines, they argue that 2026 has not been an unusually active year for large quakes.
Cassidy highlights that the year is on track with the typical number of earthquakes expected, with 11 earthquakes above magnitude 7 so far, compared to the average of 12. He emphasizes that the primary driver of large earthquakes is the movement of tectonic plates, a process that occurs at a relatively slow pace over centuries.
Shcherbakov adds that the location and depth of earthquakes play a significant role in their intensity. Earthquakes occurring close to the surface can cause more damage due to increased shaking, but this is influenced by the quality of buildings. He notes that countries like Japan have better-quality buildings, even older ones, which can withstand shaking better than structures in other regions.
The recent earthquakes in Indonesia, Venezuela, and Colombia, while devastating, are not indicative of a broader trend. Cassidy points out that these earthquakes have been particularly impactful due to their proximity to major population centers and vulnerable areas, but they do not deviate from the average number of large quakes expected in a year.
In conclusion, while the earthquakes have caused significant damage and loss of life, the data suggests that 2026 is not an unusually active year for big earthquakes. The experts' insights highlight the importance of understanding the underlying geological processes and the role of local factors in earthquake intensity.
